Episcopal priest interdicts parish - because society is guilty
Paths to paganism

Disaster preparation

Disaster preparation is a hot topic these days (ahem), and I know quite a bit about it.  One of the core missions of the National Guard is disaster response (often put under the term Defense Support of Civil Authorities or DSCA), and one of the regular ways people respond to hurricanes, severe storms and wild fires is the rallying cry of "Call out the National Guard!"

The thing is, most of these events are foreseeable and while not necessarily preventable, one can plan ahead to mitigate the impact.

For example, in Michigan ice storms are a known threat, and people will recall severe ones.  Yet in 2012, the state's leadership was caught flat-footed and - unlike its neighbors - failed to use the Guard to the fullest extent, thereby prolonging the disaster.  Afterwards there was a thorough review at the highest levels, analyzing what equipment and personnel were available and how best to mobilize and deploy them.   I know, because I sat in on the meetings, and there was a heavy tinge of interservice rivalry in the process.

My novel Three Weeks with the Coasties - A Tale of Disaster and also an Oil Spill is based on my experiences at the Unified Area Command during the Deepwater Horizon disaster recovery operation.  It was a scene of colossal confusion, ineptitude and demoralization that was only mitigated by grim determination to see the thing through.

Thus, when looking at a bad situation, it is important to remain within the bounds of reality - nature really can overpower man without much of an effort - but people can shape events beforehand and afterwards to minimize the damage and loss of life.

One of the indicators of competence in this respect is training, particularly large scale exercises.  These are very expensive, but the only way to see if things will work when you need them.  At the most basic level, it is essentially just a phone tree where units get a simulated alert and see how fast they can reach their members and get estimates on when everyone could get to their armory or base.

These can be combined with regular training events to practice the necessary skills, which often have a secondary practical function.  For example, a road-clearing exercise might well use a blocked or deteriorated logging route.  A dilapidated county round would be a good candidate to practice rehabilitation against a time element.  I participated in an exercise were dead trees that posed a threat to a stretch of road and needed removal were dropped across it, and clearance teams were put on the clock to remove the obstruction.

People have a tendency to want a single factor, a single smoking gun that proves culpability, but the reality of the situation is that these are usually cascade failures, as was Deepwater Horizon.  Lots of small failures created bigger ones.

The response was also botched, as my novel points out.  In our current age, a lot of effort goes to appearances rather than results.  UAC was all but besieged with politicians wanting to be photographed with admirals and shaking hands with Coast Guard personnel.  At the start of the operation, the Coast Guard was the most popular and respected of the US armed services.  By the end, it had record low approval and lagged its rivals, in large part because its promises and statements did not align with reality.

While fictionalized, the Coast Guard really did claim that all civil volunteer craft were fully deployed and reports that they were idle in marines were false.  At the same time these assurances were being made, an Alabama National Guard media/recon flight passed directly over the flotillas in question, which were sitting in port.  What a stupid claim to make.

And the worst part is that maybe the headquarters believed it was true.

All things to consider before rushing to judgement.

 

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